Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen held her first press conference, where just a few brief words managed to upend the financial markets. When asked about the possible timing of raising short-term interest rates, she explained that there would be a “considerable period” between the end of the bond buying program—currently being wound down at a rate of $10 billion a month—and an increase in rates. What’s “a considerable period”? Nothing too specific, maybe “about six months.”
Read moreZachary Karabell Discusses Flaws of Relying On Leading Economic Indicators
Zachary Karabell recently appeared on The Stu Taylor Show to discuss his new book, The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World. The author of 11 previous books, Karabell has written for Reuters and The Atlantic, and regularly provides commentary on CNBC and MSNBC. A successful money manager, Karabell is the Head of Global Strategy at Envestnet, and the President or River Twice Research and River Twice Capital.
Read moreThe “Made in China” Fallacy
very month, we are greeted with trade figures released by the Census Bureau. Over the past decade in particular, those figures have taken on added weight, largely because of the reported trade deficit with China. Month after month, that figure has grown, with barely a pause. In January, the reported deficit with China was a bit under $28 billion.
Read moreMissing Persons Report
The latest edition of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report is out, and it shows that, statistically speaking, the U.S. added 175,000 new jobs in February and its unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.7 percent. The insta-reaction world greeted the report as better news than expected.
Read moreHow Counting the Unemployed Started as a Progressive Reform
In an excerpt from his book, reprinted here by permission of Simon & Schuster, Karabell traces how employment data collection originated as a progressive antidote to economic inequality. But even the reformists who developed those statistics, Karabell notes, were wary of the “mania for statistics.”
Read moreWhat's the Big Deal About Official Economic Data?
The monthly jobs report is big news on the first Friday of every month, swaying the financial markets and prompting immediate analysis. But should these numbers matter so much? A new book, "The Leading Indicators," argues we overvalue data like the GDP and inflation. Economics correspondent Paul Solman talks to author and analyst Zachary Karabell.
Read moreDon’t Trust the Economic Numbers That Govern Our World
Every week we’re bombarded by numbers about GDP or consumer confidence or some other leading indicator about our economic health and prosperity. Enough, says Zachary Karabell, these numbers don’t accurately reflect our world.
Read moreAfter Words with Zachary Karabell
Zachary Karabell talked about his book, The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers that Rule Our World, in which he argues that gross national product, balance of trade, unemployment, inflation, and consumer confidence should no longer be the primary basis for business plans or monetary policy. He argued that the information revolution has made considerably more data available. He spoke with Wall Street Journal reporter Kimberly Strassel.
Read moreThe Leading Indicators
n today's uncertain economy, both the public and the world's leaders rely heavily on certain indicators to tell us how we are doing. Gross national product, balance of trade, unemployment figures, inflation, and the consumer price index determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about our future and dictate whether businesses hire or hunker down, governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, and individuals buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job. Yet few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule our world.
Read moreThe Zombie Numbers That Rule the U.S. Economy
This Thursday the Conference Board, a global business association, released its monthly index of “leading economic indicators.” Like the unemployment and inflation, housing starts, G.D.P. changes and other figures, these numbers arrive in metronomic waves.
Read moreBook Review: 'The Leading Indicators,' by Zachary Karabell
WSJ review of The Leading Indicators.
Read more25 for 25: Leave the Big Numbers to Janet Yellen
There's a small problem with numbers we use to measure the economy. You know, those numbers you hear on Marketplace every day. "One simple number is never going to capture simple reality," says Zachary Karabell, historian and economist and author of "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world."
Read more(Mis)leading Indicators
Economic numbers have come to define our world. Economists and analysts loosely refer these as “leading indicators” and subscribe to the belief that these figures accurately reflect reality and provide unique insights into the health of an economy. But this has become less reliable than ever before.
Read moreThe State of Emerging Markets: Up, Down, and Up—but Still Forward
The start of the year has not been an easy one for financial markets. The Federal Reserve is continuing its policy of trimming its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, and the immediate result has been a sharp pullback of the currencies, and to some degree equities, of countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa and Argentina. The reason? According to traders, commentators, and even the head of Brazil’s central bank, Fed policy will trigger interest rate rises around the world, staunching the flow of easy money that has purportedly fueled global growth — and leading to struggles everywhere
Read moreGeneral Electric Well Run & Disciplined: Pro
Discussing why General Electric has underperformed this year, and what it means its CEO Immelt bought $1 million worth of the stock, with Zachary Karabell, Envestnet head of global strategy, and Steven Winoker, Sanford C. Bernstein senior analyst.
Read moreIf the World Is Getting Richer, Why Do So Many People Feel Poor?
In a widely-read statement in his annual foundation letter, Bill Gates took an unabashedly optimistic approach to the world this week. Not only did he tout the massive material progress evident everywhere in the world over the past decades, but he also predicted that as more countries accelerate their transformation from rural poverty to urban middle class societies, poverty as we know it will disappear within the next two decades. “By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world,” Gates wrote. “Almost all countries will be what we now call lower-middle income or richer.”
Read moreThe Future of U.S. Manufacturing: More Hubs, Fewer Workers
Few topics have been more fraught than the fate of U.S. manufacturing. The sharp loss of manufacturing jobs since 2008 has triggered legitimate concern that America’s best days may have passed.
Read moreThe Real Future of U.S. Manufacturing
Few topics have been more fraught than the fate of U.S. manufacturing. The sharp loss of manufacturing jobs since 2008 has triggered legitimate concern that America’s best days may have passed.
Read moreThe January Series 2014 - Zachary Karabell “Trend and Repeat: What History and Economics can Teach us about the Future”
Zachary Karabell presents "Trend and Repeat: What History and Economics can Teach us about the Future" Recorded January 15, 2014 as part of the January Series of Calvin College.
Read moreWhat America Won in the ‘War on Poverty’
In an unabashed endorsement of government action to alleviate the plight of the poor, this week President Obama commemorated the 50th anniversary of the War on Poverty with his own call for new policies to address the continued struggles of tens of millions of Americans.
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