Last week, it was reported that China is poised to supplant the United States as the world’s largest economy much sooner than expected, perhaps as early as next year. These reports were derived from a new release by the World Bank that revised previous estimates of the size of China’s gross domestic product
Read moreCassandras Everywhere
All is placid in financeland. Stocks in the U.S. and globally have been in a holding pattern since December; bonds as well. Overall economic data—limited though it may be and flawed though it certainly is—shows steady unspectacular growth in the United States
Read moreRequiem for the Middleman
t hasn’t been a great week for Airbnb. On Tuesday representatives of New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and lawyers for the apartment sublet company Airbnb met in an Albany court. At issue is a broad subpoena issued by the New York AG last fall, demanding that Airbnb turn over information about its “hosts” (those who list their apartments) in the belief that thousands of them are in violation of the law by acting as de facto unregistered hotels. Airbnb has challenged the subpoena on the grounds that it constitutes an invasion of privacy of the thousands of people who use its service. Then, on Wednesday, the San Francisco city attorney brought suit against two local landlords, alleging that they illegally evicted residents in order to convert residential housing into short-term rentals advertised on Airbnb and similar services.
Read moreStop Obsessing Over Exorbitant CEO Pay
Last weekend the New York Times published its annual list of executive compensation, with Oracle’s Larry Ellison topping the charts at $78.4 million (and Disney’s Bob Iger in a distant second, at $34.3 million). Pay packages have increased by an average of 9 percent since 2012, continuing a steady and spectacular rise even as average wages in the United States and throughout much of the developed world have stagnated.
Read moreStatistically Speaking
New York Times review of the Leading Indicators.
Read moreStatistically Speaking: a Review of 'The Leading Indicators'
A review of Zachary Karabell's 'The Leading Indicators' by Diane Coyle of The New York Times.
Read moreThe Leading Indicators: Zachary Karabell
For too long, says author Zachary Karabell, we've adhered to outdated statistics for measuring economic health. Why follow a '50s road map in the 21st century when newer, more useful guides are available?
Read moreBook TV After Words: Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators."
There are a set of five economic indicators that have been guiding U.S. economic policy for decades, but most are not understood by the average citizen and, Mr. Karabell argues, are not as relevant today as when they were created. Gross national product, balance of trade, unemployment, inflation and consumer confidence should no longer be the primary basis for business plans or monetary policy, he says, as the technology revolution has made considerably more data available. He talks with Wall Street Journal reporter Kimberly Strassel.
Read moreReality Has No Partisan Bias
In the wake of last week’s job report, there has been a flurry of new debate about what precisely is keeping job creation in the United States so anemic.The pivotal issue is whether the challenges facing the job market are cyclical or structural. The cyclical hypothesis is that we are still suffering an employment hangover from the financial crisis and sharp recession of 2008–09, made worse by limp or insufficient government responses.
Read moreShocked. Shocked!
The publication this week of Michael Lewis’ new book Flash Boys has led to a heated debate about the role of high-frequency trading in today’s global financial markets. The most contentious spark was Lewis’ claim on 60 Minutes that the prevalence of such trading means that our markets are “rigged,” an accusation that touched a nerve and set off a furious series of discussions in the past few days.
Read moreGDP's Early Relevance
Economist Zachary Karabell explains the historical progression of the leading indicators in use today. Starting with World War II and continuing through the '50s and '60s, Karabell describes how the numbers came to be policymaking tools. This Carnegie Council event took place on March 11, 2014. For complete aud
Read moreStatistical Implications on Policy
Author Zachary Karabell uses an example from an Obama policy speech to illustrate how politicians falsely portray the state of the economy.
Read moreOld Statistics, New Take
Economist Zachary Karabell suggests a different take on the available data and statistics, making it more relevant to the individual. National averages that are often relied heavily upon, he says, are rarely useful in any given individual's life.
Read moreZachary Karabell: What Are You Reading?
Learn more about Leading Indicators at http://books.simonandschuster.com/The... Zachary Karabell on reading new books from novelist Meg Wolitzer and journalist Steve Coll.
Read moreRight Said Fed
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen held her first press conference, where just a few brief words managed to upend the financial markets. When asked about the possible timing of raising short-term interest rates, she explained that there would be a “considerable period” between the end of the bond buying program—currently being wound down at a rate of $10 billion a month—and an increase in rates. What’s “a considerable period”? Nothing too specific, maybe “about six months.”
Read moreZachary Karabell Discusses Flaws of Relying On Leading Economic Indicators
Zachary Karabell recently appeared on The Stu Taylor Show to discuss his new book, The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World. The author of 11 previous books, Karabell has written for Reuters and The Atlantic, and regularly provides commentary on CNBC and MSNBC. A successful money manager, Karabell is the Head of Global Strategy at Envestnet, and the President or River Twice Research and River Twice Capital.
Read moreThe “Made in China” Fallacy
very month, we are greeted with trade figures released by the Census Bureau. Over the past decade in particular, those figures have taken on added weight, largely because of the reported trade deficit with China. Month after month, that figure has grown, with barely a pause. In January, the reported deficit with China was a bit under $28 billion.
Read moreMissing Persons Report
The latest edition of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report is out, and it shows that, statistically speaking, the U.S. added 175,000 new jobs in February and its unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.7 percent. The insta-reaction world greeted the report as better news than expected.
Read moreHow Counting the Unemployed Started as a Progressive Reform
In an excerpt from his book, reprinted here by permission of Simon & Schuster, Karabell traces how employment data collection originated as a progressive antidote to economic inequality. But even the reformists who developed those statistics, Karabell notes, were wary of the “mania for statistics.”
Read moreWhat's the Big Deal About Official Economic Data?
The monthly jobs report is big news on the first Friday of every month, swaying the financial markets and prompting immediate analysis. But should these numbers matter so much? A new book, "The Leading Indicators," argues we overvalue data like the GDP and inflation. Economics correspondent Paul Solman talks to author and analyst Zachary Karabell.
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