In the waning moments of 2014, something happened that had been a long-time coming but seemed it might never arrive: the public mood in America shifted, ever so slightly yet significantly, from negativity and pessimism about the arc of the economy to something approximately hope about the future. If that holds, 2015 is going to look and feel rather different, and rather better, than things have in years.
Read moreWhat Should Investors Expect in 2015?
‘Tis the season for looks back and looks forward. The financial world will be replete with such missives in the weeks to come, and that is actually all for the best. Given the fluid nature of money and planning and investing, regular assessments of what worked and what didn’t, how the year played out versus expectations, and what might lie just ahead, are vital. While it is true that forecasts about the future usually say more about present sentiment, thinking ahead does provide a framework for assessing likely risks and potential opportunities.
Read moreThings United on a Global Platform: The New Distributed Intelligence
Discussion on the Internet of Things
Read moreNavigating China’s Internet Maze
Panel discussion on Navigating China's Internet Maze
Read moreNo, This is NOT the ’90s Economy Again
With only one more report left, 2014 is shaping up to be the best year for job creation since 1999. Predictably enough, last week’s strong numbers (321,000 jobs added) inspired some commentators to suggest that the report was not just good news,
Read moreHow The Ruble Crash Could Strengthen Putin
The ruble is crashing, but the Russian government isn’t going to any time soon. Ironically, Russia's economic distress might even make Vladimir Putin stronger.
The reasons for the ruble’s rapid decline – it’s dropped by nearly 13 percent against the dollar in November alone, and this week has seen more of the same—are neither obscure or surprising.
Read moreWhy Keystone is a Canard
Sideshows can be immensely entertaining and highly distracting. Old-time circuses had bearded ladies, freaks and strongmen; today in America we have the Keystone XL pipeline. It is the ultimate sideshow, one masquerading as a solution to real problems when, in fact, it is largely symbolic, and not particularly potent symbolism at that.
Read moreDon’t Fight Powerful Stock-Market Trends
Unless you have been living under a proverbial rock for the past few weeks (though unlikely if you are reading this), you know that the midterm elections in the United States saw a Republican sweep, with enough senatorial seats gained to take control of the Senate, more seats added to their majority in the House, and a few extra governorships picked up along the way.
Read moreWhose Economy Will It Be in 2016?
The ugly midterm campaign season provided one area of common ground: Americans and their candidates were almost universal in their disdain for the country’s economic performance over the past six years. In exit polls on Election Day, 78 percent of voters said they were worried about the economy, and clearly the Democrats took most of the blame.
Read moreStorm on the Horizon? The Changing Climate of Financial Markets
In the closing video from our 2014 Miami event, we highlight the testing conditions in financial markets. Robert Westcott, former advisor to President Clinton, examines ‘climate change’, whilst economist Zachary Karabell argues we should be looking at different indicators all together.
Read moreStop With the Fiction of a Binary Economy
The economy is a mess. It’s one thing many Americans and political candidates of all stripes seem to agree on. While it may be somewhat less of a mess than five years ago, the thinking goes, the current administration and Congress have done little to address the crushing challenges faced by large swaths of the American public.
Read moreInvesting in Do-Good Stocks Is Sustainable
Faced with the daily noise of markets’ ebbs and flows (and of late, that news has been coming in at a fast and furious clip), it’s easy to overlook the deeper trends.
Yes, a series of geopolitical crises and challenges remain and create current headwinds; yes, few feel overly confident about the tenuous state of the global economy; and yes, the recent market selloff has only fueled legitimate concerns about the future direction of interest rates and equities.
Read moreDon’t Panic!
For the past three years, stock markets have been either placid or up. That is especially true of U.S. stocks, but global markets have largely followed suit. Bonds have been similarly subdued. Over the past two weeks, that calm has been shattered.
Read moreGreenberg’s Folly
Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, the former CEO and one of the largest shareholders of the American International Group, claims that the $180-billion federal bailout of AIG in 2008 actually cost AIG shareholders tens of billions of dollars.
Read moreNaomi Klein Is Wrong
The gathering of delegates in New York last week for the latest and likely futile installment of climate talks at the United Nations prompted a new round of familiar questions: Why have the governments of the world so far been unable to stem climate change?
Read moreConsider a No-Drama Bond Market
We are, at long last, nearing the end of one of the great central banking experiments: the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy of quantitative easing, which began in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008–2009. And the primary question is quite simple: will interest rates rise and if so, by how much and when
Read moreWhy Indie Bookstores Are on the Rise Again
The recent news of the opening of an independent bookstore on Manhattan’s Upper West Side was greeted with surprise and delight, since a neighborhood once flush with such stores had become a retail book desert. The opening coincides with the relocation of the Bank Street Bookstore near Columbia University, leading the New York Times to declare, “Print is not dead yet — at least not on the Upper West Side.”
Read moreSubprime Loans Are Back!
Five years after the worst of the financial crisis, subprime loans are creeping back, this time primarily in the form of auto loans. As U.S. auto sales have surged, credit standards have moved lower, with more than a quarter of all auto financing now classified as subprime.
Read moreThe Fed Is Not As Powerful As We Think
This past week marked the annual gathering of bankers, financial officials, and other economic experts hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. On Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank head Mario Draghi both spoke; in a slow week for the markets, these speeches received the bulk of the econ media’s attention, and Yellen’s remarks were heralded for days as the week’s major financial event.
Read moreShould Investors Fear Global Tensions?
Over the past few months, geopolitical crises seem to have proliferated. First, in March, long-simmering tension between Russia and the Ukraine metastasized to a full-blown crisis after the government of Ukraine was toppled by a popular revolt. That then led to the Russian annexation of Crimea, which was followed by sanctions imposed by the Western states, armed conflict between Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine, and even more sanctions.
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